I'm not done with that and time has caught up with me so I'm posting this as a quick and dirty patch until I can fix that.
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I've just been watching Elon Musk again
and am more convinced than ever that a bit of negative feedback from
people that I trust is exactly what I need to progress.
Over the years I've become more and
more frustrated with our impotence in fighting this 'war' with the
entrenched vested interests of the content industry et al.
The fact of the matter is that all of
our political systems are compromised by money. It shouldn't be that
way but it is. Ideally we should just all wake up en-mass, change
the rules and be done with it but we all know that is never going to
happen.
So our other option is to beat them at
their own game.
I know, I know, sounds ludicrous but
hear me out. These guys, their MO is hanging on to outmoded business
practices long after they have started to stink up the place. The
business model of the monopolist has been demonstrably a losing bet
since the days of Adam Smith. I think there is a better way to do
business and not just in a moral and ethical way but in a more
profitable way.
Economic activity is at its root one
person serving others as efficiently as it is possible to do so. We
all do what we do best and we trade with others to make the number of
available man hours in the world stretch to the greatest possible
amount of production.
All the waste and greed that we see in
the traditional business model is achieving the exact opposite.
These people are creating more profit in their particular ponds not
by creating more wealth (increasing production) but by concentrating
the existing wealth.
[You don't create wealth by maximising
the amount you can extort from the market for the product that you
produce. You do so by reducing the real cost of your product until
your market is saturated and then you move your capital on to another
product. Often reducing the real cost increases the size of the
market so you never reach saturation and your profits just keep
increasing the further you drive down the real cost of the product.]
A business that was not burdened by all
this Executive greed and corruption would be much more profitable and
here I begin to get to my point.
I think that a more efficiently
structured business would be massively more profitable. So much so
that it would be like pitting assault rifles against bows and arrows.
Don't get me wrong. I think that the
current corporate paradigm is the greatest engine of economic
production mankind has ever witnessed. I just think it is like
Watt's first steam engine, vastly superior to what came before but
not so good that we can dust of our hands, pat ourselves on the back
and exclaim 'job-done!'
This is a story that has played out
time and again in human history. The railways ate the canals for
lunch, the airlines decimated the great shipping lines and Netflix
destroyed Blockbuster. Sometimes the pre-existing business model
puts up a stupid protectionist fight to hang on to its profits,
sometimes it just disappears overnight without a trace and very, very
occasional it adapts and comes out stronger than it was before.
So here is my point.
I think I have a very, very good idea
for how to structure a business so that it will be immune to all the
stupid corporate shenanigans that we are all so used to and that it
will, indeed, make so much more profit than a traditional business
that it will suck in all the oxygen so fast that the incumbents won't
even have time to react before they become extinct.
Traditional companies are what Adam
Smith would have called Joint Stock Companies so I am currently
calling my structure a Hybrid Stock Company.
I've been working on it for a number of
years but it is still mostly conceptual. It's based on a quirk of UK
corporation law that I used a number of years ago to protect myself
from a Sequestration that never happened in the end. (Long story,
don't ask...)
At the time I was a good deal younger,
more stupid, selfish, ignorant.. Feel free to fill in your own
epithet.
What I wanted to create was a company
that was bullet proof. It was mine, I had absolute control and no
one could ever take it away from me. I think I succeeded pretty well
actually. Which was of course exactly why it never went anywhere.
Who on Earth was ever going to share in
my corporate vision of 'Me, me, me'?
The epiphany that I have subsequently
had is that it is precisely that innate need to take control and to
hang on to it for dear life that hampers humanity's ability to
cooperate.
We all want to be in charge and
therefore, as the late great Douglas Adams taught us, none of us
should be permitted to be.
So I plan to take the legal structure I
created and turn it on its head. Instead of ensuring that control
stays in one place it will ensure that control never exists at all.
By dividing control equally amongst multiple groups with competing
interests and compelling them to cooperate to find the best outcome
for all of them I hope to create a dynamic, agile and minimalist
organization that is capable of transforming the world the way Watt,
sanitation, running water, or Edison and Tesla did.
The way I see it there are three
primary groups that have an interest in any particular company.
First and foremost, and I think the
least recognized, is Us.
The whole of civil society is what
permits companies to exist and is what they are intended to benefit.
We create the Rule of Law without which none of this is possible, we
enforce contracts, we are the market that purchases all these
products and it is the improvement in all of our standards of living
that all economic activity is intended to achieve. Traditionally
governments extract rent for that legal infrastructure in the form of
taxation. That system has broken down. Eric Schmidt is correct,
Joint Stock Companies have a legally enforceable duty to maximise
profitability at the expense of almost everything else and certainly
at the expense of voluntarily paying more tax than is strictly
necessary. I'm not proposing allowing government a voice in my
corporate structure though, rather I am suggesting that a Charitable
Foundation, similar to the Carnegie Trust or the Bill and Melinda
Gates Foundation, should have a role in corporate governance and a
share in the profits.
Secondly are the employees.
Lets face it, the lion's share of the
effort invested in any company's economic output is invested by its
workforce. Labour relations has been the central issue in the rise
and fall of almost every major industry. Workers that are well
treated and well rewarded are more productive. Workers are an
invaluable source of innovative ideas for improving how a company
manufactures its product and undertakes its business. Of course,
workers that gain control of areas of the business they do not
understand are liable to run the business into the ground. Unions
were a major player in the collapse of the British car industry for
example. Funnily enough I am convinced that the source of our
present difficulty is the labour force running riot within our major
companies. It's just a different segment of the work force this time
around.
Thirdly we have the investors.
Investors supply the capital without
which the company would not exist. They scrimped and saved so they
could invest their excess income in enterprises that would improve
the lot of all mankind. They are entitled to a reasonable profit on
their Stock and a voice in how their capital is managed. They should
not be entitled to total control of the enterprise. They are just
not suited to running companies, they are not even qualified to
select people that are. To quote Andrew Carnegie, who kept Carnegie
Steel a private partnership right up to the point he sold it, making
him the richest man in human history to that date, so that he could
give the whole lot away;
'The ablest presidents are hampered by
boards of directors and shareholders, who can know but little of the
business.'
Investors have absolutely no business
dictating how or by whom companies should be run. Investors that
possess these skills should be encouraged to become entrepreneurs on
their own account.
[My personal opinion is that this is
the root cause of the current financial crisis. By devolving
management of companies to poorly chosen employees, with almost total
autonomy, investors created an environment that allowed inefficiency
and corruption to explode unchecked in the upper echelons of all of
our corporate entities. What I call 'management-bloat' is an
emergent property of normal individual human frailties allowed to
operate without intervention on an enormous scale. Without
supervision Management just gradually pays itself more and more and
does less and less and employs more and more of its friends form
'uni'. It becomes a bit like a tug of war competition, vast amounts
of effort is expended but virtually nothing is actually achieved.
Except perhaps finding ever more creative ways of concealing this
from the shareholders. When this occurs in institutional investors
it has a further emergent property of concentrating the control of
vast amounts of our corporate infrastructure in the hands of a very
small group of these employees, as voting rights become disassociated
from the individual investors. Meet 'The Management', the new
Unions. Hidden in plain sight, many times as powerful and ruining
our economies much more effectively.
Obviously, confusing speculation with
economic activity was what kicked it all off, but I think it was the
vast amount of 'management-bloat' in our corporate institutions that
made them vulnerable, they just didn't make enough profit to cope
with a sudden down-turn.]
Investors deserve to have their voice
and profits returned to them. Ironically by reducing their degree of
control over the companies that they invest in.
Obviously I do intend to profit
personally from my ideas and I don't necessarily trust myself to have
created a perfect bullet-proof structure that will last for the rest
of time. I'd also far rather be a Richard Branson than an Elon Musk,
sorry Elon, if you ever read this, you're looking pretty tired and
harried right now. I don't want to personally run all of the
companies that I help create but I do want to be able to steer their
course.
So my current plan is to set myself up
as a Trustee whose job it is to mediate between the three control
blocs and that possesses a big fat 'Nope' button and a kill-switch
just in case things go off the rails. My thinking is that I would
allocate the Trustee a Veto power, 1% of the stock and the power to
wind the company up under certain circumstances.
Here's the thing though, I don't just
want to talk about it or theorise on the internet. I want to
implement it. Get it out there, see how it works and iterate,
improve and experiment.
I also think it's reasonable to start
big. It would be easy enough to structure a start-up using my model
to use as a proof of concept but that is a long slow process that
requires one to also have a good idea for a start-up. However I
don't think that there is any reason not to be as ambitious as
possible. It takes many years to build up a billion dollar
enterprise, why not short-cut that process and restructure an
existing business that is failing?
There are a great number of vulnerable
multi-nationals whose investors might look kindly on any possibility
of rescuing capital that is going down the tubes.
Even losing two thirds of your
investment is better than losing all of it, particular if you have
already suffered substantial losses that you have not yet realised
and you are an investor looking for long term growth rather than
speculating on short term fluctuations.
By partnering with long term investors,
like pension funds, one might launch a hostile takeover that, by
publicly promising to substantially dilute the stock, would actually
drive the stock price down or might even cause it to collapse.
To this end I have started work on the
legal documents necessary to create a Hybrid Stock Company, I've
batted around a couple of mathematical models of how best to pay
employees and selected, what I think is, a really good target for
this type of restructuring.
Nokia.
On the surface, and as far down as I've
been able to dig, Nokia seems like an ideal choice. It is at its
core a solid, sound company that only three or four years ago was a
world leader, one that totally dominated a hugely important market
segment. It has however been run into the ground by exactly the sort
of idiots we're all here to try and do something about. Its stock
price is something like a seventh of what it was four years ago but
its balance sheet is now worth twice its market-cap. The vultures
are circling and the long term investors, like their own pension
fund, must be getting pretty jumpy. It looks like the people that
drove Nokia to this point are happy to drive them into bankruptcy and
to pick up the pieces for a song. Which means the current
shareholders will lose everything. Unless they act.
Nokia also represents an unexploded
grenade for everybody profiting from open-source in the mobile space.
They have a vast portfolio of hardware patents that will likely end
up in Redmond if something isn't done to prevent it. Every member of
the Open Handset Alliance has good reason to consider buying Nokia,
even as only a defensive measure, but none of them can really justify
purchasing the whole company or are really capable of doing so.
Google could probably afford it but fat chance they would be allowed
to after swallowing up Motorola so recently. Same with Samsung I
reckon.
A coalition of OHA members, backed by
existing big investors, could gain control though. By keeping Nokia
independent you could side-step regulatory complications and still
bring it into the OHA and use its resources to level the playing
field with the proprietary cartel. Personally I would donate all
their patents to a pool that allowed unrestricted use in return for
donating any patents, that you control, that you bundle with
pool-patents, in any particular device, software package or service,
to the pool under the same license. Force everyone to compete on
merit rather than in the courtroom.
This new Nokia would still have a vast
advantage over their competitors because it is one thing to know how
something is done and it is quite another to do it and to do it well.
I don't think it would take very long to turn it around and return
it to its former glory.
Rinse, repeat, total global
domination....
Well so go my sun-drenched fantasies.
So here I come to you guys. Any of you
that have made it this far.
I am flawed.
A painful fact that I attempt to deny
at every turn. Nonetheless, it is the truth. I don't know
everything, I don't have a Degree or a PhD or decades of experience.
I'm just a guy that has an insatiable sense of curiosity and so knows
a little bit about a great many subjects. What I do know is that I
am not an expert in any particular field and that to make my,
admittedly toweringly ambitious, plans a reality I will need the help
of experts. And of people that see the same thing I do and are
inspired by it to take the bull by the horns and go out and try to
change the world.
So I would be enduringly grateful of
any of you were willing to take the time to look at my ideas, comment
on what you like about them, what you don't like about them, things
I've missed, basic assumptions I may have gotten wrong. Tear it
apart if you think it's terrible, suggest improvements that are
glaringly obvious to you and I have somehow missed or just tell me
whether you think I'm cracked or I might be on to something worth
pursuing.
Yours
Chris Hanlon
Founder
The Darien Project
[That was the short version, just FYI,
there is a vast amount more where that all came from but is mostly
half-baked, half-formed thoughts about employee remuneration, or
targeting the G185 for economic growth, or raising financing, or what
best to do with all these excess 'middle-managers'?]
Chris,
ReplyDeleteWith what money? Are you already a billionaire?
Well exactly.
DeleteI'm open to suggestions.
My first thought was to approach the Open Handset Alliance with a well thought out business plan. Nokia isn't a massive problem for them yet but it could well be if it implodes and Microsoft or Apple end up with all the patents. None of them can really buy Nokia on their own, their would be a competition investigation and Nokia's assets don't really align well with any one companies needs but if they could share ownership and access to the assets it might well be a worthwhile investment.
My second thought is to organise a shareholder revolt. There are plenty of long-term investors holding Nokia shares, Nokia's pension scheme for one, and many of them are holding shares worth a fifth of what they paid for them. If they sell them they realise the loss but if they hold them the company might collapse. Enough of them might be willing to tolerate a dilution if there was a reasonable prospect of the shares returning to pre-Elop levels in the medium term.
Perhaps a combination of both tactics might be possible.
I quite like the idea of just walking into a bank and asking for a business loan of £5B but I can't see anyone taking that seriously.
That's partly the point of this blog, crowd-sourcing ideas for finding financing.